MLB best bets: Expert predictions and picks for Saturday 4/27 

Dodgers vs. Blue Jays

Saturday, April 27, 3:07 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Blue Jays ML (+138, FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Tyler Glasnow has been a tremendous addition for the Los Angeles Dodgers and is set to throw against Yusei Kikuchi — who has also been phenomenal for the Toronto Blue Jays — on Saturday. Kikuchi has been limiting hard contact and is striking out more hitters than he ever has. Will that last? Maybe, but at the moment, he's been comparable to Glasnow.

The Dodgers are strong against left-handed pitchers, but not as dominant against right-handers. Kikuchi can also work deep into games, which will lessen the impact Toronto's bullpen has on this contest. As a result, the Blue Jays have a good shot to win this game.

Simply put, Toronto is the value play in this game.

Kikuchi has been just as good as Glasnow and is worth a play at plus money. Both relief staffs have been below average, but if Kikuchi can get into the sixth inning, as he has done numerous times this season, the Blue Jays can win this game. Bet Toronto down to +110.

Pick: Blue Jays ML (+138 | Play to +110)

Reds vs. Rangers

Saturday, April 27, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
Reds ML (+117, BetRivers)

By Brad Cunningham

Hunter Greene has been a bit unlucky to begin this season and is a positive regression candidate. His ERA is currently sitting at 4.55, but his expected ERA is over two runs lower at 2.52.

Greene does it all with basically only two pitches, but man are they both really good. His fastball averages 98.2 mph, the third fastest in baseball. Not only that, but it has 17.8 inches of induced vertical break, which makes it even harder for hitters to get on top of. So, it's no surprise that it has a Stuff+ rating of 140, which is second best in baseball behind only Jared Jones.

It's pretty notable that since the start of last season, the Rangers have been a top-five offense against fastballs. But in this matchup, if we only look at how they have performed against fastballs 98 mph or faster, they only have a .272 xwOBA, which is 17th in baseball.

Michael Lorenzen really wasn't that great with both the Angels or the Phillies last season, posting a 4.55 xERA. His first two starts with the Rangers have been good on paper, but his expected ERA is well over six.

The problem with Lorenzen is that his secondary pitches are actually really good, but he's too reliant on his fastball and sinker. He throws those two pitches a combined 50% of the time, and both of those pitches have a Stuff+ rating below 80. Additionally, he's really struggling with his command, having an 18.2% walk rate and 94 Location+ rating. And when hitters are making contact, they are crushing it, as he's allowing a .469 xwOBACON.

With the drastic edge in the starting pitching matchup for the Reds, I don't think they should be this big of an underdog. I have Cincinnati projected at -102, so I like the value on the Reds at +117.

Pick: Reds ML (+117)